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Petroleum Science >2010, Issue 1: 136-146 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12182-010-0018-8

Risk-opportunity analyses and production peak forecasting on world conventional oil and gas Perspectives Open Access

文章信息

作者：Zhang Jian,Sun Zandong,Zhang Yiwei,Sun Youshun and Nafi Toksoz

作者单位：

Lab for Integration of Geology and Geophysics, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China; State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Prospecting, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China; Earth Resources Laboratory, Massachuset;Lab for Integration of Geology and Geophysics, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China; State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Prospecting, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China;Lab for Integration of Geology and Geophysics, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China; State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Prospecting, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China;Earth Resources Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Mass. Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA;Earth Resources Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Mass. Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA

投稿时间：2009-06-26

引用方式：Zhang, J., Sun, Z., Zhang, Y. et al. Pet. Sci. (2010) 7: 136. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12182-010-0018-8

文章摘要

To investigate the situation of conventional oil and gas, this paper examines the global oil and gas discoveries, proved reserves, production, consumption and price. All the influencing factors can be subjected to risk and opportunity analyses, so in the paper, we build upon a risk-opportunity analysis framework, which is a new train of thought. To forecast the peak time of oil and gas production, we used the methods of multi-Hubbert model forecasting and data forecasting. Our results showed that the world oil production will reach a peak between 2010 and 2015 and the gas production will reach a peak around 2030 Oil peak is coming and gas peak is on the way. The main purpose of forecasting oil and gas production peak is give people enough time for preparing mitigation and adaptation plans. This means taking decisive action well before the problem is obvious.

关键词

Production, reserve, risk, opportunity, forecasting