Petroleum Science >2024, Issue5: - DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petsci.2024.05.021
Evolution, resilience and causes of global petroleum gas trade networks: 1995–2020 Open Access
文章信息
作者:Na Li, Yi-Ran Song, Ying Wang, Chun-Bao Ge
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引用方式:Na Li, Yi-Ran Song, Ying Wang, Chun-Bao Ge, Evolution, resilience and causes of global petroleum gas trade networks: 1995–2020, Petroleum Science, Volume 21, Issue 5, 2024, Pages 3656-3674, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petsci.2024.05.021.
文章摘要
Abstract: Based on the HS 4-digit code trade data in UNCOMTRADE from 1995 to 2020, this paper analyzes the characteristics of the evolution of the global PG trade network using the complex network approach and analyzes the changes in its resilience at the overall and country levels, respectively. The results illustrated that: (1) The scale of the global PG trade network tends to expand, and the connection is gradually tightened, experiencing a change from a “supply-oriented” to a “supply-and-demand” pattern, in which the U.S., Russia, Qatar, and Australia have gradually replaced Canada, Japan, and Russia to become the core trade status, while OPEC countries such as Qatar, Algeria, and Kuwait mainly rely on PG exports to occupy the core of the global supply, and the trade status of other countries has been dynamically alternating and evolving. (2) The resilience of the global PG trade network is lower than that of the random network and decreases non-linearly with more disrupted countries. Moreover, the impact of the U.S. is more significant than the rest of countries. Simulations using the exponential random graph model (ERGM) model revealed that national GDP, institutional quality, common border and RTA network are the determinants of PG trade network formation, and the positive impact of the four factors not only varies significantly across regions and stages, but also increases with national network status.
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Keywords: Petroleum gas; Complex network approach; Network resilience; Exponential random graph model