Petroleum Science > 2010(3 ) :365-370 DOI:
Forecast and analysis of the “roof effect” of world net oil-exporting capacity Open Access
文章信息
作者：Oil production, oil consumption, net oil-exporting capacity, roof effect
作者单位：TONG Xiaoguang,ZHAO Lin,WANG Zhen and ZHANG HaiyingSchool of Business, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China; China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Corporation, Beijing 100034, China;School of Business, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China; China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Corporation, Beijing 100034, China;School of Business, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China;School of Business, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China
收稿日期：
出版日期：2010-12-29 00:00:00.0
引用方式：
文章摘要
Oil is extremely crucial to the development of the modern economy. It is important to forecast the oil supply capacity due to its scarcity and non-renewability. This paper attempts to forecast and analyze thirty-five current and potential net oil-exporting countries. Integrating both qualitative and quantitative methods, the oil production and consumption are predicted based on historical data, so that the world net oil-exporting capacity can be obtained. The results show that the “roof effect” of the world net oil-exporting capacity may appear before 2030. Unconventional oil will play an important role in the future world oil market. The competition and cooperation relationships between OPEC and non-OPEC will last for a long time.
英文关键词
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Oil production, oil consumption, net oil-exporting capacity, roof effect