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基于博弈分析的我国天然气储气库开发策略及运营模式研究
陈思源,张奇,王歌,李彦
中国石油大学( 北京) 中国能源战略研究院,北京 102249
Development strategy and operation mode of gas storage in China based on game analysis
Academy of Chinese Energy Strategy, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249

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摘要  天然气在不同季节的需求量差距很大,为保障天然气供应系统的安全稳定运行,需依靠储气库进行天然气供应量的调节。此外,随着天然气定价机制改革的推进,储气库的开发策略和运营模式成为了理论和政策研究的热点。本研究在中国天然气定价机制改革的大背景下,根据我国天然气市场的具体情况,提出了天然气市场非合作博弈模型,定量分析天然气储气库的最优开发策略与运营模式,解决了原有天然气储气库开发和运营研究以定性分析为主、缺乏模型支持的问题。分析结果显示,当储气库非独立运营时,第三方准入会促使垂直一体化经营的生产商修建更多的储气设施,储气库最优容量将扩大为原来的1.2 倍,同时消费者剩余增加了25%,社会总福利增加9%。当储气库独立运营时,储气库最优容量增加至一体化经营时的1.6 倍,社会总福利增加44%。由此可见,储气库完全独立运营能有效刺激天然气下游市场需求,并且能有效缓解冬季用气紧张。
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关键词 : 天然气; 储气库; 运营模式; 博弈分析
Abstract

  Due to the serious gas consumption fluctuations in different seasons, gas storage facilities are necessary to secure a reliable gas supply. Currently gas storage capacity is very small in China, due to a lack of economic incentive for storage facility construction under the current pricing mechanism. In this study, the impacts of the operation mode and pricing mechanisms of possible gas storage facilities are analyzed based on game theory. It is suggested that the storage capacity can be increased through market reform in China. A game theoretic model is proposed in this study, which can be used to analyze the operation modes of natural gas storage quantitatively. The most similar current studies are based on qualitative analysis without supporting mathematic models. Our results show that by allowing third party involvement, the storage capacity of gas storage raises to 1.2 times of the original. Meanwhile, consumer surplus increases by 25%. Total social welfare grows by 9%. When the storage operates independently, the optimal capacity becomes 1.6 times of that of integrated operation and the total social welfare is raised by 44%. This means independent operation is most effective for the gas storage.

Key words: natural gas ; underground gas storage facilities ; operation mode ; game theoretic analysis
收稿日期: 2018-05-30     
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陈思源,张奇,王歌,李彦. 基于博弈分析的我国天然气储气库开发策略及运营模式研究[J]. 石油科学通报, 2016, 1(1): 175-182. CHEN Siyuan, ZHANG Qi, WANG Ge, LI Yan. Development strategy and operation mode of gas storage in China based on game analysis. 石油科学通报, 2016, 1(1): 175-182.
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