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美国Haynesville 页岩气井产量递减规律
郭克强,张宝生,Mikael HOOK,Kjell ALEKLETT
1 中国石油大学( 北京) 工商管理学院,北京 102249 2 乌普萨拉大学地球科学学院,乌普萨拉 SE 75236,瑞典
Production decline laws for shale gas wells in Haynesville, US
GUO Keqiang, ZHANG Baosheng, Mikael HOOK, Kjell ALEKLETT
1 School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China 2 Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala SE75236, Sweden

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摘要  Haynesville区块是美国含气量最丰富的页岩区块之一,地位重要,且数据相对完善,对其进行产量递减规律研究,既有现实意义,又有理论价值。同时运用传统Arps双曲递减模型和现代扩展指数递减模型对该区块2008—2014 年812 口页岩气单井产量进行拟合,分析递减模型的参数、峰值产量、不同时期递减率和最终可采储量,进而总结页岩气井的产量递减规律。结果表明:(1)该地区大部分页岩气井显示出典型的“钟型曲线”产量变化模式,即产量在短时期内从低到高达到峰值,然后迅速下降,并长期保持低产;(2)在递减阶段,两个模型对页岩气井组均值和单井产量数据序列都有很好的拟合效果,尽管传统的双曲递减模型的参数β有26%的取值大于1,但合理选取页岩气井的产气生命周期长度(比如20 年)可有效降低最终可采储量预测误差,因此仍可用于页岩气产量分析;(3)约有70%的页岩气井峰值产量达到9.3万~ 27.9万 m3/d,且从整体趋势看,“新井”往往比“老井”具有更高的峰值产量,递减期第1 年时的产量递减率为72%,第2年时为86%。
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关键词 : 美国Haynesville区块; 页岩气; 产量递减规律; 双曲递减; 扩展指数递减
Abstract

  The Haynesville, one of the most successful developed shale plays in the U.S., was used as a case in this study because of its important position, long history and complete database, based on which the production decline laws can be analyzed. The traditional Arps Hyperbolic and the modern Stretched Exponential decline curve models were applied to the well-by-well production data to find the characteristic parameters of production decline curves. The study shows: (1) most of the studied shale gas wells have a typical production pattern of peaking rapidly and declining steeply after the peak is reached; (2) during the decline phase, both the Hyperbolic model and the Stretched Exponential model fit well to the aggregate and the individual shale gas wells, even about 26% of the β-parameter values of the hyperbolic model are larger than one, which still can be used when a well life span is set as 20 years; (3) in the Haynesville play, about 70% of wells reach a peak production of 9.3×104~27.9×104 m3/d, newer wells tend to have higher peak production than older wells, and in the decline phase, the production decline rate after the first year is around 72% and over the first two years is around 86%.

Key words: U.S. Haynesville ; shale gas ; production decline laws ; hyperbolic ; stretched exponential
收稿日期: 2016-07-13     
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基金资助:国家社会科学基金重大项目“非常规油气开发利用对国家能源安全及社会经济的影响”(13&ZD159) 资助
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郭克强,张宝生,Mikael HOOK,Kjell ALEKLETT. 美国Haynesville 页岩气井产量递减规律[J]. 石油科学通报, 2016, 1(2): 293-305. GUO Keqiang, ZHANG Baosheng, Mikael HOOK, Kjell ALEKLETT. Production decline laws for shale gas wells in Haynesville, US. 石油科学通报, 2016, 1(2): 293-305.
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