关键词 :
overseas investment project ; economic risk ; Monte Carlo simulation ; decision tree analysis
Abstract:
With the increasing global outlook of Chinese petroleum enterprises, their decision-makers face a series of risks. Economic risk analysis is an effective means of reducing losses. Based on the characteristics of overseas investment projects and system analysis of risk factors, Monte Carlo simulation and decision tree analysis methods are adopted in this paper to evaluate the economic risks for one overseas investment project. The results show that the two methods have almost the same conclusion that the project is low risk. Finally, suggestions are put forward to deal with the economic risks of overseas investment projects.
姜洪殿,董康银,孙仁金,邱坤. 我国石油企业海外投资项目经济风险分析研究[J]. 石油科学通报, 2016, 1(3): 512-521. JIANG Hongdian, DONG Kangyin, SUN Renjin, QIU Kun. Research into economic risk analysis of overseas investment projects of Chinese petroleum enterprises . 石油科学通报, 2016, 1(3): 512-521.