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拟合函数—神经网络协同的页岩气井产能预测模型
胡晓东,涂志勇,罗英浩,周福建,李宇娇,刘健,易普康
College of Artificial Intelligence, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China
Shale gas well productivity prediction model with fitted function-neural network cooperation
HU Xiaodong, TU Zhiyong, LUO Yinghao, ZHOU Fujian, LI Yujiao, LIU jian, YI Pukang
College of Artificial Intelligence, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China

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摘要  基于LSTM和DNN神经网络,本文设计了一种多变量动态产能预测 模型。通过数据维度重组,将目标井前期的产量、压力等时序参数与 用液强度、加砂强度、总含气量、脆性矿物含量等静态产能控制参数 混合构建数据集,以实现目标井后期生产曲线的预测。其中,基于现 场真实日产气量数据,利用Arps产能曲线拟合模型对同区块的邻井 产能数据进行特征筛选,以间接加入含产能递减规律的弱物理约束; 基于实际工况下单日生产时间与产量的强相关性,于神经网络模型内 部加入强物理约束,进而提高了模型的产能时间序列预测精度和局部 稳定性。
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关键词 : LSTM;物理约束;动态产能预测;页岩气;机器学习
Abstract

Gas well productivity prediction is an important task in gas field development. In contrast, shale gas production is influenced by many factors in geology and production with strong nonlinear characteristics. Traditional mechanism-based productivity prediction methods are difficult to comprehensively and accurately characterize multi-dimensional and multi-structural types of productivity influencing factors, and it is difficult to quickly solve the production dynamics after shale gas fracturing. To address this problem, based on LSTM and DNN, a novel fitting function-neural network synergistic model for dynamic production productivity prediction of shale gas wells was proposed in this paper. Firstly, the data set was constructed by reorganizing the data dimensions, mixing the time-series parameters such as production and pressure in the early stage of the target well with the static productivity control parameters such as fluid intensity, sand addition intensity, total gas content, brittle mineral content, etc., in order to achieve the prediction of the production curve in the late stage of the target well. Second, based on the real daily gas production data in the field, the Arps productivity curve fitting model was used to filter the productivity data of neighboring wells in the same block to indirectly add a weak physical constraint containing the law of decreasing productivity; based on the strong correlation between single-day production time and production under actual working conditions, a strong physical constraint was added inside the neural network model to improve the productivity time series prediction accuracy and local stability of this model. This improves the prediction accuracy and local stability of the model. Based on this model, a shale gas block in China was predicted to have a future production curve, and the prediction results were cross-validated by k-fold Method. Among them, the effects of neural network model parameters, productivity control parameters and time step on the model accuracy were discussed separately. The results show that the model in this paper has a high accuracy rate. With a small sample of production data from neighboring wells, the model can still capture more production characteristics by using static capacity control parameters such as fluid intensity and pre-production and pressure profiles of the target wells. This study results in this paper provide some guidance for the evaluation of fracturing effect of old wells and the optimization of production parameters of new wells.

Key words: LSTM; physical constraint; dynamic productivity prediction; shale gas; machine learning
收稿日期: 2022-09-29     
PACS:    
基金资助:中石油战略合作项目“物探、测井、钻完井人工智能理论与应用场景关键技术研究(No. ZLZX2020-03)”资助
通讯作者: huxiaodong@cup.edu.cn
引用本文:   
胡晓东, 涂志勇, 罗英浩, 周福建, 李宇娇, 刘健, 易普康. 拟合函数—神经网络协同的页岩气井产能预测模型. 石油科学通报, 2022, 03: 394-405
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