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气象灾害下的油气站场设备脆弱节点辨识方法
胡瑾秋, 韩子从, 董绍华.
中国石油大学( 北京) 安全与海洋工程学院,北京 102249
Identification method of vulnerable nodes of oil and gas station equipment under meteorological disasters
HU Jinqiu, HAN Zicong, DONG Shaohua
School of Safety and Ocean Engineering, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China

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摘要  油气站场是保障我国石油与天然气等能源运输、储存体系的重要组成部分,油气站场的安全稳定运行是油气系统,乃至国家经济发展的重要一环。我国面积较大,包含多种气候地区,不同地域易发暴雨、雷电、台风等气象灾害。气象灾害发生在油气站场及其附近时可能会对相关设施造成破坏,导致站场处于异常工况中运行,甚至引发事故。常见的石油及相关液态加工产品的储运站场,介质除本身具有易燃易爆特性外,一般还具有一定的挥发性,易形成可燃气体云团。天然气站场常伴随高压运行条件,站场一旦出现异常工况或事故会使厂区内部工作人员的生命安全及周边环境都承受较大风险。气象灾害往往难以避免,但可以通过有针对性地增加安全措施加强站场在气象灾害条件下的稳定性,降低气象灾害带来的风险。为了达到上述目的,综合考虑油气站场的设备在遇到暴雨、雷暴等气象灾害时,更容易发生油气泄漏、爆炸等事故的情况,本文根据气象灾害发生场景,及相关场景下可能发生的灾害演化路径提出了一种定量的脆弱节点辨识方法。面对不同的环境风险,现有方法对于站场设备脆弱节点辨识缺乏精细度与准确度,错误辨识脆弱节节点不仅会导致防护过程中人力物力的浪费,更可能导致储罐管道的泄漏,甚至引发爆炸。本文对重力模型进行改进,结合鲁汶算法,提出基于社团分析模型的设备脆弱节点辨识方法。通过实验分析,得到暴雨天气、雷暴天气下的脆弱节点,并利用提出模型对历史案例进行分析,得到结果与实际调查情况较为吻合。相较于其他分析方法,社团分析模型精细度提高了10%以上,分析结果准确率提高了10%以上,召回率提高了14%以上。实验结果表明,本文所提方法可以实现多种极端天气下的脆弱节点辨识,且能对节点进行更精准的定位。
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关键词 : 油气站场,风险辨识,脆弱节点辨识,气象灾害,复杂网络,社团分析
Abstract

The oil and gas station is an important part of the transportation and storage system of oil and natural gas in China. The safe and stable operation of the oil and gas station is an important part of the oil and gas system and even the national economic development. China has a vast territory with diverse climate types, including storm, lightning, typhoon and other meteorological disasters. When meteorological disaster occurs in and around oil and gas stations and yards, it may cause damage to relevant installations, leading to abnormal operation of stations and yards, and even accidents. The medium in the oil and gas stations usually has significant characteristics of flammability and explosion. In the common situations, petroleum and related liquid processing products are generally volatility and easy to form flammable gas clouds. Natural gas stations are often accompanied by high pressure operation conditions. Once abnormal working condition or accident occurs, the life safety of staff inside the station area and the surrounding environment will bear risks. That’s difficult to avoid totally meteorological disasters, but targeted safety measures can be taken to strengthen the stability of stations to resist meteorological disasters and reduce the loss. Here, considering the equipment of oil and gas station often has more oil and gas leakage, explosion and other accidents when encountering meteorological disasters such as rainstorm and thunderstorm, this paper proposed a quantitative vulnerable node identification method according to the occurrence scenario of meteorological disasters and the possible disaster evolution path in related scenarios. The methods often adopted at present lack fineness and accuracy in identifying vulnerable nodes of station equipment, which may cost a lot to protect the wrong nodes and vulnerable nodes, but still lead to leakage of storage tank pipelines, or even high risk of explosion. Based on the improvement of gravity model and the Leuven algorithm, this paper proposed a method to identify vulnerable nodes of equipment in community analysis model. This paper revealed five vulnerable nodes, including automatic fire extinguishing system, ranking highest in rainstorm, and five vulnerable nodes, including lightning rod, ranking highest in thunderstorm. Compared with other analysis methods, the precision of community analysis model increased by more than 10%, the accuracy of analysis results increased by more than 10%, and the recall rate increased by more than 14%. The fragile nodes in historical cases can be identified, and more vulnerable nodes can be identified.


Key words: oil and gas station; risk identification; vulnerable nodes identification; meteorological disaster; complex network; community analysis
收稿日期: 2024-04-30     
PACS:    
基金资助:国家自然科学基金(52074323)、中石油战略合作科技专项(ZLZX2020-05-02) 和中国石油大学( 北京) 科研基金(ZX20200137) 联合资助
通讯作者: hujq@cup.edu.cn
引用本文:   
胡瑾秋, 韩子从, 董绍华. 气象灾害下的油气站场设备脆弱节点辨识方法. 石油科学通报, 2024, 02: 297-306 HU Jinqiu, HAN Zicong, DONG Shaohua. Identification method of vulnerable nodes of oil and gas station equipment under meteorological disasters. Petroleum Science Bulletin, 2024, 02: 297-306.
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