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首页» 过刊浏览» 2016» Vol. 1» Issue (1) 154-163     DOI : 10.3969/j.issn.2096-1693.2016.01.010
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基于可靠性的含蜡原油管道停输再启动安全性评价方法
张劲军,宇波,于鹏飞,韩东旭
中国石油大学( 北京) 油气管道输送安全国家工程实验室/ 石油工程教育部重点实验室/ 城市油气输配技术北京市重点实验室,北京 102249
Reliability-based approach to the assessment of restartability of waxy crude pipelines
National Engineering Laboratory for Pipeline Safety, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Petroleum Engineering, Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Oil and Gas Distribution Technology, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China

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摘要  停输后再启动失败(业内俗称凝管)是含蜡原油管道运行的主要风险。本研究将基于可靠性的极限状态方法引入含蜡原油管道停输再启动安全性评价,建立了基于管道停输及再启动过程非稳态传热与非稳态流动的再启动失效数学模型,发展了高效、稳健的随机数值模拟算法,提出了停输再启动目标安全水平的建议,实现了含蜡原油管道停输再启动安全性的定量评价。该方法的用途包括确定停输不同时间后管道再启动失败的概率,根据目标安全水平确定管道的允许停输时间,以及一定允许停输时间条件下的最低安全进站温度。与根据经验确定输油温度和允许停输时间的传统做法相比,本研究为含蜡原油管道的安全、经济运行提供了新的理论和方法支持。
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关键词 : 含蜡原油; 管道; 停输再启动; 可靠性; 概率评价方法
Abstract

  Restart failure is the major threat to the safe operation of waxy crude pipelines. This study introduces the reliability-based limit state method into the assessment of restart ability of waxy crude pipelines. A mathematical model for restart failure assessment was established which is based on the unsteady heat transfer and start-up flow during the shutdown and restart process. Further, an efficient and robust stochastic-numerical simulation algorithm has been developed, and a target safety level is recommended. Therefore, a quantitative assessment of the restart ability of waxy crude pipelines has been achieved. The application of this approach includes the determination of the restart failure probability of a pipeline shut down for a period, the determination of the maximum allowable time of pipeline shutdown corresponding to a target safety level, and the determination of the minimum pumping temperature of a crude corresponding to a maximum allowable time of pipeline shutdown. Compared with the traditional approaches to determining empirically the pumping temperature and maximum allowable time of pipeline shutdown, this study provides new support in theory and methodology for the safe and economical operation of waxy crude pipelines.

Key words: waxy crude ; pipeline ; restartability ; reliability ; probabilistic approach
收稿日期: 2018-05-30     
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张劲军,宇波,于鹏飞,韩东旭. 基于可靠性的含蜡原油管道停输再启动安全性评价方法[J]. 石油科学通报, 2016, 1(1): 154-163. ZHANG Jinjun, YU Bo, YU Pengfei, HAN Dongxu. Reliability-based approach to the assessment of restartability of waxy crude pipelines. 石油科学通报, 2016, 1(1): 154-163.
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