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首页» 过刊浏览» 2021» Vol.6» Issue(3) 451-464     DOI : 10.3969/j.issn.2096-1693.2021.03.036
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深水浅层浅水流灾害风险评价与防灾方法研究
申屠俊杰,林伯韬,陆吉
1 中国石油大学(北京) 油气资源与探测国家重点实验室,北京 102249 2 中国石油大学(北京) 石油工程学院,北京 102249 3 中国石油大学(北京) 人工智能学院,北京 102249
Research on risk assessment and prevention methods of shallow water flow hazards in deep-water and shallow areas
SHENTU Junjie, LIN Botao, LU Ji
1 State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Prospecting, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China 2 College of Petroleum Engineering, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China 3 College of Artificial Intelligence, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China

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摘要  随着全球能源需求日益增加,海洋油气资源,尤其是深水资源成为了新一轮的勘探开发热点。深水油气 资源具有储量高、潜力大、探明率低的特点,但同时也伴随着浅层地质灾害等陆上钻井不曾面临的问题。浅水 流灾害是一种频繁的浅层地质灾害,其实质为深水浅层发育的超压砂体,主要由地层中快速沉积和不平衡压实 作用形成。浅水流灾害破坏力大、分布区域广,对井壁、套管、井口等均有影响,严重破坏井筒完整性。本文 首先阐述浅水流灾害的概念、危害及主要成因,其次总结了浅水流的识别预测技术、风险评价方法及相关防控 措施,最后提出了风险评价及综合防灾方法。浅水流的识别与预测方法主要有测井法和反射地震法两种,其中 反射地震法是最常用的方法,主要通过Vp/Vs值的异常变化实现浅水流超压砂体的识别。目前,浅水流灾害的风 险评价工作侧重于钻前预测,以定性判断为主,缺乏定量分析,但近年来涌现的实验及数值模拟研究正不断填 补这块空白。浅水流的预防和控制作业主要包括井控措施和工作液体系优化。本文综合了现阶段浅水流灾害的 风险预测及评价工作,提出一套新的风险评价体系,并将风险评价体系与防灾措施相结合,形成动态防灾方法。 该防灾方法可合理规划浅水流区域钻井作业施工,并将风险评价方案与应对机制有机结合,并且可在作业过程 中不断优化方案,从而提高钻井作业的灵活性和防灾能力。最后,本文展望了浅水流灾害防灾工作的发展趋势, 认为浅水流流动破坏机制的基础研究、地球物理识别技术的发展及人工智能技术的应用将是今后的研究热点和 重点。
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关键词 : 地质灾害;浅水流;防灾方法;风险评价;机器学习
Abstract
With the continuous increase in global energy demand, offshore oil & gas resources, especially deep-water oil & gas
resources, have become new development hotspots. The deep-water oil & gas resources are characterized by high reserves, great  
potential and low exploration rates, but they are also accompanied by shallow geological hazards and other problems that onshore  
drilling works have never faced. Shallow water flow (SWF) is a common geological hazard, which is essentially the over-pres
sured sand section developed in the deep water and shallow areas and mainly formed by rapid deposition and unbalanced  
compaction in the formation. SWF hazards have large destructive power and wide distribution areas, which have influence on  
the borehole, casing and wellhead, and can seriously damage the integrity of the wellbore. In this paper, the concept, harm, and  
main causes of SWF hazards are firstly expounded. Then the identification and prediction technology, risk assessment methods,  
prevention, and control measures of SWF hazards are summarized. Finally, risk assessment and comprehensive prevention  
methods are put forward. It is concluded that the identification and prediction methods of SWF hazards mainly include logging  
and reflection seismic methods. Among these, the reflection seismic method is adopted more commonly in practice, which recog
nizes the overpressure sand body by the abnormal fluctuations of the value of V p / V s . At present, the risk assessment of the SWF  
hazards places more emphasis on the pre-drilling prediction and qualitative judgment but lacks quantitative analyses. However,  
experimental and numerical simulation studies have been constantly filling this gap in recent years. The prevention and control  
operations of SWF hazards include well control measures and working fluid system optimization. Based on current work of the  
risk prediction and assessment of the SWF hazards, a new risk assessment system is proposed and then combined with disaster  
prevention measures in this study, proposing a dynamic hazard prevention method. This hazard prevention method reasonably  
plans the drilling operations in SWF areas, combines the risk assessment scheme with the response mechanism, and continuously  
optimizes the drilling scheme during the drilling operation to improve the flexibility of drilling operations and enhances the  
hazard prevention ability. Finally, the development trends of SWF hazard prevention are examined. It is considered that basic  
research into the flow failure mechanism of the SWF hazards, the development of geophysical identification technology, as well  
as the application of artificial intelligence technology (AIT) will be the research emphases in the future.


Key words: geological hazard; shallow water flow; hazard prevention methods; risk assessment; machine learning
收稿日期: 2021-09-29     
PACS:    
基金资助:国家科技重大专项(2017ZX05009-003) 和中国石油大学( 北京) 科研启动基金项目(ZX20200120) 联合资助
通讯作者: linb_cupb@163.com
引用本文:   
申屠俊杰, 林伯韬. 深水浅层浅水流灾害风险评价与防灾方法研究. 石油科学通报, 2021, 03: 451-464 SHENTU Junjie, LIN Botao, LU Ji. Research on risk assessment and prevention methods of shallow water flow hazards in deep-water and shallow areas. Petroleum Science Bulletin, 2021, 03: 451-464.
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