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基于油权理论的全球能源地缘格局及对中国影响研究
梁萌,张奇,任重远 ,彭盈盈
1 中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京 102249 2 中国石油集团经济技术研究院,北京 100724 3 中国石油大学(北京)中国能源战略研究院,北京 102249
A study of the global pattern of energy geopolitics based on petroleum power theory and its impact on China
LIANG Meng, ZHANG Qi, REN Zhongyuan, PENG Yingying
1 School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China 2 CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute, Beijing 100724, China 3 China Energy Strategy Research Institute, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China

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摘要  新冠疫情不但导致世界经济受创,还使得石油行业成为受影响最严重的领域,全球石油需求被大幅压缩。 为争夺市场份额,世界最大原油出口国沙特与最大生产国俄罗斯爆发了石油价格战,加剧了油价暴跌与国际石 油市场的动荡,全球石油问题中的地缘政治色彩更加突出,背后实为国际石油体系中地缘政治权力的博弈,本 文称之为油权。本研究首先基于油权理论,结合地缘政治学、国际关系学、政治经济学视角,从资源、通道和 市场的角度,提出了全球石油权力指标体系,并定量评估了主要国家的油权指数时空演化。进一步基于油气资 源国与中国之间的能源地缘互动关系,量化分析了主要资源国对中国影响及其演变特征,包括资源国的油权、 与中国的外交关系、通道安全、中国对其依赖度以及其对中国的依赖度。结果表明:①当前全球“3+X”的石 油地缘政治格局形成,俄罗斯、沙特、美国为全球的三大关键油权行为体。②近年来,主要资源国的油权指数 呈现增加的趋势。③美国、伊拉克、澳大利亚、卡塔尔等西方阵营的资源国对我国的影响力增强,而伊朗、委 内瑞拉、哈萨克斯坦等我国传统伙伴对我国的影响力减弱。④新冠疫情背景下油权的结构性权力特征更加凸显, 有助于进一步提升中国的油权指数以及在世界石油地缘政治中的潜在影响力。
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关键词 : 石油地缘政治;能源地缘政治;全球石油权力;能源权力;油权理论;能源安全
Abstract
The new coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has impacted much of the global economy, and the oil market has    
been one of the hardest-hit sectors. Global oil demand was expected to decline greatly in 2020 as the impact of the COVID-19    
spreads around the world. An oil price war broke out between Russia, the world’s largest crude oil producer, and Saudi Arabia,    
the world’s largest oil exporter, in order to compete for global market share, which aggravated the collapse of the oil price and the    
turmoil on the international oil market. Thus, the geopolitical role of the global oil issue becomes more prominent. Behind this  
is the game of petroleum power, i.e. the struggle and use of geopolitical power in the international petroleum system, named as    
petroleum power in this paper. In the present study, a new global petroleum power index system is proposed based on the theory    
of petroleum power and from the perspectives of geopolitics, international relations and political economy theories, As well, a    
global petroleum power indicator system was proposed and the temporal and spatial evolution of the petroleum power index    
of major oil and gas-rich countries are evaluated quantitatively, including secondary indicators covering oil and gas resources,    
cross-border transportation, international oil and gas markets and national strength. Based on the energy geo-interaction    
between oil and gas-rich countries and China, the influence index of major oil and gas-rich countries on China and its evolution    
characteristics are analyzed quantitatively. This involved the petroleum power of oil and gas-rich countries, diplomatic relations    
between China and oil and gas-rich countries, security of cross-border transport between China and oil and gas-rich countries,    
China’s dependence on oil and gas-rich countries and the dependence of oil and gas-rich countries on China. The results show    
that: (i) In the current international petroleum geopolitics system, a “3+X” petroleum geopolitical pattern was formed. Russia,    
Saudi Arabia and the United States are the three key players in petroleum geopolitics in the global level. (ii) In recent years, the    
petroleum power index of the main oil and gas-rich countries has increased. (iii) The United States, Iraq, Australia, Qatar and    
other countries of western coalition have increasing influence on China. On the other hand, Iran, Venezuela, Kazakhstan and    
other oil and gas-rich countries, are China’s traditional friendly partners, but their influence has decreased significantly. (iv) In    
the context of COVID-19, the structural characteristics of petroleum power are more prominent, which helps to further enhance    
China’s petroleum power index and its potential influence in the international oil geopolitics system.  


Key words: oil geopolitics; energy geopolitics; global petroleum power; energy power; petroleum power theory; energy security
收稿日期: 2021-09-29     
PACS:    
基金资助:中国博士后科学基金项目(2019M660934) 资助
通讯作者: ZhangQi@cup.edu.cn
引用本文:   
梁萌, 张奇, 任重远, 彭盈盈. 基于油权理论的全球能源地缘格局及对中国影响研究. 石油科学通报, 2021, 03: 524-538 LIANG Meng, ZHANG Qi, REN Zhongyuan, PENG Yingying. A study of the global pattern of energy geopolitics based on petroleum power theory and its impact on China. Petroleum Science Bulletin, 2021, 03: 524-538.
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