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考虑两层相关性的腐蚀油气管道失效概率计算方法
王赤宇, 虞维超, 陈磊, 张华斌, 张杰, 王超, 王子宇, 廉凌峰, 黄辉荣
1 中国石油塔里木油田公司,库尔勒 841000 2 国家石油天然气管网集团有限公司油气调控中心,北京 100013 3 国家石油天然气管网集团有限公司甘肃分公司,兰州 730060 4 深圳泊松软件技术有限公司,深圳 518129 5 重庆科技大学石油与天然气工程学院,重庆 401331
A method for calculating the failure probability of corroded oil and gas pipelines considering the two layers of correlation
WANG Chiyu, YU Weichao, CHEN Lei, ZHANG Huabin, ZHANG Jie, WANG Chao, WANG Ziyu, LIAN Lingfeng, HUANG Huirrong
1 PetroChina Tarim Oilfield Company, Korla 841000, China 2 PipeChina Oil& Gas Control Center, Beijing 100013, China 3 PipeChina Gansu Company, Lanzhou 730060, China 4 Shenzhen Poisson Software Technology Co., Ltd., Shenzhen 518129, China 5 School of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering, Chongqing University of Science & Technology, Chongqing 401331, China

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摘要  在腐蚀油气管道失效概率计算中,存在随机变量相关和腐蚀缺陷相关的两层相关性。针对当前腐蚀管道 可靠性评价中对相关性影响的研究不足,本文提出了考虑两层相关性影响的腐蚀油气管道失效概率计算方法。该方法首先基于Copula函数对具有相关性的随机变量进行抽样,结合管道失效极限状态方程,计算单个腐蚀缺陷的失效概率。进一步采用系统可靠性理论,考虑缺陷间相关性,对含多个腐蚀缺陷的腐蚀油气管道失效概率进行计算。并以我国某条天然气管道的实际数据为例,采用拉丁超立方抽样方法研究了两层相关性以及缺陷数量对管道失效概率的影响,并基于敏感性分析,量化了随机变量相关系数和腐蚀缺陷相关系数对腐蚀油气管道失效概率的影响。结果表明,缺陷相关性对管道失效概率计算影响明显高于随机变量相关性。小孔泄漏和爆裂失效概率随着缺陷之间相关系数的增大而减小,随着缺陷数量的增加而增大。随机变量相关性对管道小孔泄漏失效概率没有影响,管道爆裂失效概率随着壁厚与管径相关系数的增大而减小,随着初始缺陷长度与深度的相关系数增大而增大。缺陷轴向与径向增长速率相关系数的增大对管道爆裂失效概率的影响具有双向性,预测周期内大约前16 年随着相关系数的增大,管道爆裂失效概率增加,大约25 年后随着相关系数的增大,随相关系数增大而降低。研究成果适用于分析含多个腐蚀缺陷的油气管道可靠性评价,对管道安全运行、油气资源平稳供应具有参考意义。
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关键词 : 腐蚀油气管道,双层相关性,拉丁超立方抽样,可靠性,失效概率
Abstract

In the calculation of the failure probability of corroded oil and gas pipelines, there are two layers of correlation between random variables and corrosion defects. In view of the insufficient research on the influence of correlation in the reliability evaluation of corroded oil and gas pipelines, this study proposes a method for calculating the failure probability of corroded oil and gas pipelines considering the influence of the two layers of correlation. In the method, the Copula function is employed to sample the random variables with correlation, and the failure probability of a single corrosion defect is calculated by using the failure limit state equation. Then, the system reliability theory is used to calculate the failure probability of corroded oil and gas pipelines with multiple corrosion defects considering the correlation between defects. Moreover, taking the actual data of a natural gas pipeline in China as an example, the Latin hypercube sampling method was used to study the influence of the two layers of correlation and the number of defects on the failure probability of the pipeline. Moreover, the effects of random variable correlation coefficient and corrosion defect correlation coefficient on the failure probability of corroded oil and gas pipelines were quantified based on sensitivity analysis. The results show that the influence of defect correlation on pipeline failure probability calculation is significantly higher than that of random variables. The probability of leakage and burst failure of small holes in corroded pipelines decreases with the increase of the correlation coefficient between defects, and increases with the increase of the number of defects. The correlation of random variables has no effect on the probability of leakage of small holes in the pipeline, and the probability of pipeline burst failure decreases with the increase of the correlation coefficient between wall thickness and pipeline diameter, and increases with the increase of the correlation coefficient of initial defect length and depth. The increase of the correlation coefficient of the axial and radial growth rate of defects has a bidirectional effect on the probability of pipeline burst failure, and the probability of pipeline burst failure increases with the increase of the correlation coefficient in the first 16 years of the prediction cycle, and decreases after about 25 years with the increase of the correlation coefficient. The research results are suitable for the analysis of the reliability evaluation of oil and gas pipelines with multiple corrosion defects which have reference significance for the safe operation of pipelines and the stable supply of oil and gas resources.


Key words: corroded oil and gas pipeline; two layers of correlation; Latin hypercube sampling method; reliability; failure probability
收稿日期: 2024-10-31     
PACS:    
基金资助:重庆市自然科学基金“纳米杂化降凝剂NPPD 对含蜡油体系表观流变特性的改善机理研究”(No.cstc2021jcyj- msxmX0918)、重庆市教委
科技研究计划“纳米降凝剂NPPD 对含蜡油蜡沉积特性的影响机理研究”(No.KJQN202101545) 和重庆科技学院科研启动项目“新型纳米流动改性剂NFM 对含蜡油微观结晶过程的调控机理研究”(ckrc2021003) 联合资助
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引用本文:   
王赤宇, 虞维超, 陈磊, 张华斌, 张杰, 王超, 王子宇, 廉凌峰, 黄辉荣. 考虑两层相关性的腐蚀油气管道失效概率计算方法. 石油 科学通报, 2024, 09(05): 819-830 WANG Chiyu, YU Weichao, CHEN Lei, ZHANG Huabin, ZHANG Jie, WANG Chao, WANG Ziyu, LIAN Lingfeng, HUANG Huirrong. A method for calculating the failure probability of corroded oil and gas pipelines considering the two layers of correlation. Petroleum Science Bulletin, 2024, 09(05): 819-830. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-1693.2024.05.063
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