Abstract：

　　Hydrate formation and plugging are the main risks in the process of deep sea oil production. The prediction of hydrate plugging probability is the foundation of the safe operation of gas-condensate pipelines. In this paper, by introducing a limit state method of reliability to hydrate plugging risk calculation, we established a mathematical model based on hydrate formation and flow properties. We comprehensively considered the uncertainty of pipeline operation parameters and we used Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition(POD) methods to solve the limit state equation of plugging risk. Probability analysis of hydrate plugging in gas-condensate pipelines has been realized.

Key words：hydrate growth shell model plugging probability reliability LHS and POD

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Cite this article：RUAN Chaoyu,SHI Bohui,SONG Shangfei, et al. Study of hydrate plugging risk in gas-condensate pipelines[J]. 石油科学通报, 2016, 1(2): 257-269.

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